2026 Fall Economic Update

Since the Spring Economic Update, the Saskatoon Region experienced continued economic growth, although at a slower pace amid ongoing uncertainty and shifting market conditions. Despite these challenges, the Region demonstrated strengths in construction investment, expanding business activity, and recovering exports, while a weakening labour market and rising costs placed pressure on the regional economy. This update highlights the key trends, challenges, and opportunities that are influencing the Saskatoon Region’s current economic position.

Key Takeaways:

  • Economic Growth Slowing: Signal49 Research projects real GDP growth of 1.2% year over year in Q3, with quarterly output 0.6% below Q2. Continued expansion in primary industries, manufacturing and selected service industries is being offset by weaker activity in other industries.
  • Business Activity Expanding While Purchasing Power Stagnates: The number of active employer businesses increased 2.2% in Q2, while retail sales are projected to grow 4.7% in Q3. However, disposable income per capita is expected to remain essentially unchanged. Limited growth in purchasing power could constrain the benefits of increased business activity.
  • Construction Remains Strong as Investment Mix Shifts: Investment in building construction increased 16.2% in Q2, driven by residential and institutional projects. Multiple dwellings are becoming a larger component of permit approvals. These additions could help ease housing pressures, although elevated prices and rising construction costs continue to challenge affordability.
  • Labour Supply Continues to Outpace Employment: Working-age population increased 3.3% in Q3, while employment grew only 0.8% and declined from Q2. Unemployment reached 6.3%, and wage growth slowed. The Region continues to benefit from a growing workforce, but weaker hiring points to a softening market, beyond recent balanced conditions.
  • Exports Recovering Among Saskatchewan’s Largest Markets: Saskatchewan exports increased 28.1% in Q2, supported by energy, agricultural products and minerals. Stronger exports and commodity prices provide opportunities for the Region’s producers, manufacturers and supporting businesses. The concentration of exports in a few major categories remains vulnerable to ongoing trade disputes.
Read Full Report