2025 Fall Economic Update
Reflecting on the Spring Economic Update, uncertainty dominated the outlook. Business owners, policymakers, and consumers were weighing risk against opportunity and responding to a constantly shifting global landscape, with developments in Russia, China, and the United States reshaping expectations.
As we move into the fall, uncertainty remains, but the region is showing resilience. A strong labour market, steady economic growth, and an easing housing market signal stability even as global trade challenges and shifting sentiment continue to test the balance. This update highlights the trends and opportunities shaping the Saskatoon Region’s evolving outlook.
Key takeaways from this report:
- Growth Holding Steady: GDP is projected to grow 1.7% in Q3 2025, an upgrade from earlier forecasts, supported by gains in construction and natural resources. Manufacturing continues to fall at a slower pace, along with slower population growth signals a moderating outlook ahead.
- Labour Market Strengths Threatened: The Saskatoon Region’s labour market remains strong, below provincial and national averages, with unemployment at 4.7%. However, slower population growth and immigration cuts are expected to tighten supply.
- Housing Market Pressure Eases: The housing market is showing early signs of easing as inventory levels have increased year-over-year for the first time in five years. Demand still outpaces supply, keeping prices approximately 10% higher than last year. With borrowing costs now lower, the balance between new supply and renewed demand will be critical to watch.
- Navigating Trade Challenges: Saskatchewan’s exports fell nearly 9% in Q2 2025, largely due to reduced shipments to the U.S. and China; however, this decline is being offset by stronger growth in European, African, and Asian markets. Commodity prices trending upward and trade diversifying are continuing to support growth across the natural resources sector.
- Sentiments and Adaptations: Businesses are focusing on fewer, higher-value projects amid cost pressures. Consumers remain selective in daily spending but confident in major purchases. High savings and strong big-ticket spending help sustain Saskatchewan’s economy.
