Market Diversification: Saskatchewan Export Potential in Key Markets

Diversification is a powerful and undervalued tool in building economic resilience, though it is often overlooked. That is, until overreliance on a single sector or market reveals its consequences, a reality we’re seeing play out not just in the Saskatoon Region, but globally. Diversification works best when it is worked on proactively, not reactively, building resilience to volatility rather than running from it.

Saskatchewan’s economy has always been resource-driven, thriving when global commodity prices are strong but feeling the impact just as quickly when they’re not. This is where the Saskatoon Region sets itself apart. The Region’s economy draws strength from multiple sources: globally sought-after minerals, a world-class research and innovation ecosystem, robust agricultural and manufacturing industries, and a steadily expanding technology sector. This diverse local economy makes the Region less vulnerable to downturns in any one area and better positioned to thrive through economic change.

Diversification in a Shifting Global Landscape

With reliance on previous trade partners a thing of the past, Saskatchewan exporters are taking deliberate steps to broaden their trade sights beyond the United States. Provinces are beginning to loosen interprovincial trade barriers to strengthen domestic supply chains and increase internal trade. Meanwhile, Canada is deepening existing trade relations through 15 trade agreements with global actors like the European Union, the Trans-Pacific Region, and ASEAN, among others.

Additionally, analysis from the International Trade Centre highlights notable supply gaps in global markets and in key sectors where Saskatchewan has a natural advantage (see Table 1). These aren’t just market gaps. They’re strategic opportunities to reinforce trade resilience, grow market share, and expand in a rapidly evolving global economy.

Tensions Create Opportunity

The U.S.-EU trade dispute highlights the increasing importance of market diversification among businesses and economies. As the U.S. imposes blanket tariffs on EU imports and the EU responds with 25% tariffs on a wide range of U.S. goods, ripple effects are being felt across global supply chains. This opens new doors for countries like Canada.

One key example is cereals. In 2024, U.S. cereal exports to the EU totaled roughly $293.9 million, including wheat, meslin, barley, and oats. If the EU follows through with increased tariffs on these imports, buyers may look elsewhere, creating a strategic opening for Saskatchewan producers to fill that gap. When combined with Canada’s existing $176.3 million in unrealized cereal export potential to the EU, the total opportunity climbs to $470.1 million.

The opportunity doesn’t stop there. The EU accounts for just 7.7% of Canada’s untapped export potential. Saskatchewan’s global advantage extends across high-value sectors such as potash, uranium, and agri-food, together reflecting up to $10.8 billion in additional potential export value.

Table 1: Canada’s Unrealized Export Potential

	Unrealized Export Potential – World	Unrealized Export Potential – EU	EU’s Percentage Share of Canada’s Export Potential to the World
Potassium chloride as fertilizer	$7,000,000,000	$262,505,132	3.8%
Natural uranium	$488,000,000	$89,270696	18.3%
Rapeseed oil, crude	$432,000,000	$128,562,718	29.8%
Wheat & meslin	$877,000,000	$95,726,110	10.9%
Rapeseed oil & fractions, processed	$140,000,000	$88,864,498	63.5%
Peas, dried & shelled	$162,000,000	$84,325,311	52.1%
Wheat (durum)	$299,000,000	$42,151,842	14.1%
Oats	$252,000,000	$36,990,741	14.7%
Barley	$212,000,000	$25,226,125	11.9%
Lentils	$470,000,000	$20,927,258	4.5%
Soya beans	$1,300,000,000	$10,489,096	0.8%
Chickpeas, dried & shelled	$49,000,000	$3,365,033	6.9%
Total	$11,681,000,000	$888,404,560	7.6%

Source: ITC Export Potential Map

Saskatchewan’s economic future will be defined by its ability to expand what it produces, diversify across industries, and strengthen its ties to global markets. The Saskatoon Region plays a vital role in this future, as a hub for innovation, value-added processing, and logistics, supporting the province’s ability to scale exports and compete in high-growth international markets.

In today’s world of rising protectionism, shifting geopolitical alliances, and changing trade policies, diversification isn’t just a buffer against uncertainty; it’s the key to staying competitive and leading in the global economy.

Disclaimer

The Export Potential Map estimates provided by the International Trade Centre (ITC) are based on a data-driven methodology developed by the ITC. These estimates are calculated using a combination of factors including a country’s current export performance, global demand trends, market access conditions, and bilateral trade relationships. The model also incorporates product-specific sensitivity to geographic distance, recognizing that transport costs and perishability can significantly affect trade feasibility. While the methodology is grounded in robust trade data and economic modeling, results should be interpreted as indicative and used in conjunction with qualitative assessments and expert judgment.

GLOSSARY

Export Potential – Export potential is an estimate of the potential US dollar value of exports that can be achieved for a given exporter, product, and market in a specific year, for established export products.

Unrealized Export Potential – Unrealized potential corresponds to the difference between export potential and realized potential (actual exports).