SREDA’s Q3 Consensus Forecast Survey shows economists have slightly trimmed their outlook for the Saskatchewan economy this year, but expect growth to normalize in 2019. Real GDP growth is now forecast to come in at 1.8% (0.2 percentage point lower than projected in March), before climbing to top spot (2.1%) in 2019 for the province.
Despite higher interest rates, housing affordability is still not an issue in Saskatoon. The aggregate affordability index rose 0.7 percentage points to 33.7% in Q1-2018, just above the long term average (33.3%). The Saskatoon index has been stuck at neutral levels for the past three years. The Q! increase only represents a slight erosion in affordability, not much different from its 33-year average.
Saskatchewan’s economy grew 2.9% in 2017, following a 0.4% decline in 2016. The rebound was powered by the goods-producing sector.
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released its Q2-2018 Housing Market Assessment, rating Saskatoon as having a moderate degree of vulnerability for the second consecutive quarter due to evidence of overbuilding.
The survey concludes the provincial economy is expected to build momentum in 2018 with many leading economists upgrading their growth prospects for the Saskatchewan economy. Based on the survey real GDP growth is forecasted at 2.1 percent for 2018 after an estimated 2.0 percent rebound last year, and an increase of 1.9 percent for 2019. This will bump up Saskatchewan to fourth position on the provincial economic growth leader-board for 2018, and second strongest growth next year. This is a significant improvement from last year where Saskatchewan was ranked seventh.
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released its 2017 Fall Housing Market Outlook for Saskatoon CMA, projecting modest gains in new and resale housing markets and gradual decline in rental vacancy rate over the next two years.
Job growth and improving consumer sentiment are expected to slightly increase sales in the coming years, reduce the unabsorbed inventory from the prior year and support modest advances in home construction.
Technology is one of the most rapidly progressing aspects of our modern world. Over the past decade, substantial advances have been made in areas such as automation and artificial intelligence. With each new advancement technology becomes a bigger part of all our lives; no matter who you are or what you do, technology has an impact. As a result, the technology industry is booming and predicted to experience continued growth into the future. This evolving industry presents an opportunity for communities like Saskatoon to expand their economic concentration and develop a larger and more diverse technology sector.
Sin taxes have existed as a form of corrective social policy since the mid-21st century, but have just recently been applied to sugary drinks. Britain has introduced legislation that will set levies on unhealthy sugary drinks in the next two years, and the Canadian Federal Government has considered adopting similar programs in the past.
Latest data from Statistics Canada show Saskatchewan retail sales struggling to maintain traction as building and garden centre sales take a big fall. Total retail sales was barely changed at $1.6 billion in June after retreating from its positive trajectory in April (Chart 1). Compared to a year ago, sales were up a modest 1.0% (seasonally adjusted) and ranks ninth lowest among the provinces.
Saskatchewan’s construction industry is currently advocating for the development of prompt payment legislation to remedy increasingly long wait times for payment on completed projects. Currently, payment terms can extend beyond 90 days, which places significant pressure on small and medium sized firms that are cash flow sensitive.
On May 18th, Donald Trump notified Congress of his intent to renegotiate the North America Free Trade Agreement, triggering a 90 day consultation period before official renegotiation can begin. The agreement between Canada, Mexico, and the United States created the world’s largest free trade area when it was implemented on January 1st of 1994. Changes to NAFTA could have significant impacts on many companies engaged in cross-border business within North America.
Like We’ve Been Saying; Saskatoon Economy Continues to Show Signs of Growth – Latest GDP and Employment Figures Forecast Modest Growth.
Latest GDP and Employment Figures_May26Beginning this year, the Federal Government will contribute to establishing superclusters by providing up to $250 million in funding to individual supercluster applications with the greatest potential to accelerate Canada’s economic growth. The funding program is focused on innovative industries, including agri-food, advanced manufacturing, clean technology, digital technology, health and bio-sciences, clean resources, infrastructure, and transportation. With infrastructure in place and a variety of highly innovative organizations already established, a supercluster funding grant would help to continue strengthening our existing world-class cluster.
The Federal Government has announced that, beginning in 2018, there will be a minimum price for carbon emissions in Canada of $10/tonne. The price will rise by $10/year to $50/tonne by 2022. Provinces have the option of implementing and administering the program themselves. If provinces do not develop their own program, the Federal Government will administer one on their behalf. Last week, the Ministry of Environment released details on what exactly this federally-imposed plan will look like.
The Question: What is the Canadian Infrastructure Bank and why is it important to the economy?
SREDA surveyed the Saskatoon Region business community to gauge their level of confidence in the regional economy. The survey was sent to over 4,000 local business community members using SREDA’s daily Economic Newsflash. The response rate was 1.9%.
This report provides an estimate of lost labour productivity to businesses within the Saskatoon Region as a result of traffi c delays at nine rail crossings within the city of Saskatoon. Results of the data analyzed estimates businesses in the Saskatoon Region lose 209 hours of production per working day, or 52,668 hours per year. This translates into a production loss of $10,068 per working day or $2.5 million lost in GDP to the Saskatoon Region economy per year.
This report examines the economic impact of the education gap as well as the economic nature, impact and potential of First Nations and Métis economic development. A particular focus was put on urban reserves and Aboriginal-owned economic development corporations in the Saskatoon Region.
The report was commissioned by the Saskatoon Aboriginal Employment Partnership (SAEP), a committee comprising of numerous stakeholders including Aboriginal training and education institutes, industry, the City of Saskatoon and the Saskatoon Regional Intersectoral Committee. SAEP was formed to support greater employment opportunities for Aboriginal citizens in the Saskatoon Region. The report was developed and researched in cooperation with the Saskatchewan First Nations Economic Development Network (SFNEDN). Heather Exner-Pirot of the University of Saskatchewan who is also a member of the SFNEDN Board of Directors acted as the Research Lead. SREDA is the host organization of SAEP and oversees delivery of the program.
Although the term, ‘diversified economy’ is commonly used when referring to the Saskatoon Region, rarely is it clearly defined or measured. SREDA has taken an in-depth look at what it means to be a diversified economy, and has measured this diversification through the use of regional economic indicators including employment and GDP. As a second step in this analysis, SREDA has used the results of these calculations and compared them to other Canadian cities.